Preliminary flat rolled steel import licenses, for the first fifteen days of July, were down 21.1% compared to the same period in June. Hot-dipped galvanized import licenses are down sharply as well, sliding 19.5% compared to the first two-plus weeks of June.
After slipping in May, new housing starts rebounded in June and are now up for the second time in the last three months. June new housing starts came in at a 1.353-million-unit rate, up 3.0% from May but were still 4.4% below year-ago levels. This is the second consecutive month in which starts have declined on a year-over-year basis.
Inventory, on dealers’ lots, at the end of June increased after seeing a slight decline in May. Light vehicle inventory ended June at 2.820 million units, up 3.4% from May and up a sharp 47.8% from the 1.908 million units at the end of June 2023. Inventories of both cars and light trucks increased from the previous month, climbing 0.5% and 4.0%, respectively. Current light truck inventory is at its highest level since March 2020.
U.S. light vehicle sales totaled 1.322 million units, down 7.6% from May and down 3.4% from June 2023. The main reason for the drop in June sales was due to a wide cyberattack that impacted a third party, used by over 15,000 dealers, to process sales. It is being estimated that the cyber issues decreased sales in June by at least 50,000 units. As of this writing the issue appears to be resolved and sales are expected to be made up for in July. Despite the decline in June sales, the year-to-date total (7.824 million units) remains 2.3% above the total from the first half of 2023.
The May new home sales came in at a 619,000 unit rate, down 11.3% from April and down 16.5% from the 741,000 unit rate in May 2023. This was the first year-over-year decline since March 2023. The inventory of new homes for sale increased to 480,000, up from 466,000 in April and is at its highest total since January 2008. The current inventory, when combined with May’s sales pace, equates to 8.6 months of supply. The median sales price declined slightly to $417,400, down from $417,9000 in April.
The May industrial production index came in at 103.3, up from, a downwardly revised, 102.5 in April. Within the overall index, the manufacturing component increased a similar 0.9% after sliding in the previous two months. Within manufacturing, the durable manufacturing component increased 0.6%. The largest increases were in the indexes for wood products, machinery, and for computer and electronic products.
Sales in May totaled a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 15.9 million units, a small increase from April’s 15.8 million and above May 2023’s 15.5 million unit rate. Actual May U.S. light vehicle sales totaled 1.429 million units, up 8.5% from April and up 4.8% from 1.364 million units in May 2023. Sales are now up for the third time in the last four months on an actual basis.
After declining in the previous three months, confidence among U.S. consumers rebounded in May. The May Consumer Confidence Index came in at 102.0, up from 97.5 in April. The present situation index increased to 143.1 from 140.6 in April. The expectations index, a short-term outlook, increased nearly 6.0 points to 74.6. Despite rebounding in May, the expectations index remains below 80 for the fourth consecutive month.
Existing home sales came in at a 4.140 million unit rate, down 1.9% from March and down 1.9% from the 4.220 million unit rate in April 2023. Sales have now declined on a year-over-year basis for thirty-two consecutive months. The inventory of unsold existing homes increased to 1.210 million units, the highest level since October 2022. The current inventory, when combined with April's sales pace, equates to 3.5 months of supply. This is up from 3.2 months in March and above the post-pandemic average of 2.7 months. The median sales price increased to $407,600, up for the third straight month and at its highest level since last June. furnaces overcame the slight increase in water heater shipments. For Q1, total HVAC equipment shipments were up 1.0% from the total in Q1 2023 but were down nearly 10% from the Q1 total in 2022.
On the back of strong seasonal momentum, HVAC equipment shipments totaled 1.952 million units in March, up 13.0% from February but were down 2.7% from March 2023. This was the first year-over-year decline in shipments since December. Looking on a year-over-year basis, to help smooth seasonality, the decline in A/C & heat pumps and furnaces overcame the slight increase in water heater shipments. For Q1, total HVAC equipment shipments were up 1.0% from the total in Q1 2023 but were down nearly 10% from the Q1 total in 2022.
