Market Update | January 25, 2023

 

MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS ON THE RISE

Mortgage applications increased 7.0% from a week ago, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. The Refinance Index increased 15% from the previous week, but still 77% lower than the same week one year ago. The Purchase Index also increased 3% from one week earlier as mortgage rates declined for the third straight week. This is good news for potential homebuyers looking ahead to the spring home buying season.

 

Input Costs

As the recent up and down movement for zinc continues, pricing increased for the third consecutive week.

    • Zinc pricing came in at $1.55/lb this week, up from $1.47/lb previously and is at its highest level in five-plus months.

 

Spot iron ore pricing pushed slightly higher ahead of the Chinese New Year this week, climbing slightly to $124.95/mt.

    • This is up 0.5% from the end of last week and is up 11.3% on a m/m basis.

 

Met coal pricing pushed higher as well this week, ending the week at $330.00/mt.

    • This is up nearly 6% over the last two weeks and is up 10.2% from three-month average.

 

Very early indications are pointing to scrap prices seeing a slight increase in February.

    • A potential $10-$20 increase would be the third consecutive monthly increase and the first February increase since 2010.

    • However, there are still factors that could provide headwinds for February scrap pricing, with the main one being export pricing (specifically to Turkey).

 

 

Supply

U.S. raw steel production climbed once again last week, now up for the second consecutive week.

    • U.S. steelmakers produced 1.620 million tons at an 72.5% utilization rate.
    • This was the highest weekly output since the second week of December.
    • Despite the recent bump higher, YTD production is down 7.5% compared to last year.
    • U.S. mill capacity utilization has remained subdued at 70-75% of late, but the average 2023 utilization is still expected to increase to 75-80%, increasing steel availability, especially as new EAF sheet mills finally begin to more aggressively ramp up during the back half of the year.

 

Based on preliminary import license data, January imports (through 17 days) are down from the same rate in December.

    • Carbon flat rolled import licenses in January are down 3.9% from the rate in December.

 

 

DEMAND

Mortgage applications increased 7.0% from a week ago, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey.

    • The Refinance Index increased 15% from the previous week but was still 77% lower than the same week one year ago.

    • The Purchase Index increased 3% from one week earlier.

    • Mortgage rates declined for the third straight week, which is good news for potential homebuyers looking ahead to the spring home buying season.
    • Mortgage rates on most loan types decreased last week and the 30-year fixed rate reached its lowest level since September 2022 at 6.2%.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This material, information and analyses (the “Content”) may include certain statements, estimates and projections prepared with respect to, among other things, historical data and anticipated performance.  Content may reflect various assumptions by Majestic Steel USA, Inc. concerning anticipated results that are inherently subject to significant economic, competitive and other uncertainties and contingencies and have been included for illustrative purposes.  Content is provided AS-IS.