Market Update | June 22, 2022

 

LIGHT VEHICLE PRODUCTION GAINING MOMENTUM

U.S. light vehicle production totaled 849,147 units in May, up a significant 8.9% from April, and 21.9% from this time last year. This marks production increases in four of the last five months.

 

Input Costs

After rebounding last week, zinc pricing declined this week.

    • Zinc pricing is currently at $1.61/lb, a still elevated level however.

 

Spot iron ore pricing saw a sharp decline to start the week before pricing began to slowly recover throughout the week.

    • Spot iron ore pricing is now at $115.90/mt, down 13.6% w/w and 14.7% below last months level.

    • Spot iron ore pricing has now declined to its lowest level since the start of the year.

 

Pacific Basin met coal pricing continued its recent slide this week.

    • Current pricing is at $374.00/mt, down 1.8% from the end of last week.

    • While pricing is still down 28.1% compared to this time last month, pricing is up 100% from this time last year.

 

Ahead of the July scrap buy week, market sources expectations are for scrap prices to decline again in July.

    • If accurate, this would mark the third consecutive month-over-month decline.

 

U.S. imported (NOLA) pig iron pricing dropped sharply last week.

    • The Platts’ weekly price for U.S. imported pig iron decreased 19.4% w/w to $645/mt, after climbing over $1000/mt as recently as March.

    • The current price is now down 26.1% from this time last month but still up 19.4% from the start of the year.
    • Cheap Brazilian cargoes and a freefalling domestic scrap market have helped to push pricing lower of late.

 

 

Supply

Domestic raw steel production declined last week after climbing the previous week.

    • U.S. steelmakers produced 1.758 million tons at an 80.5% utilization rate.
    • This was the lowest weekly output for domestic production since the second week of April.

 

Based on preliminary import licenses, daily average imports in the first 20 days in June increased 4.5% compared to the rate in May.

    • The coated flat rolled import rate is down 2.1% compared to the rate in May.

 

DEMAND

After slowing in April, U.S. light vehicle production regained its upward momentum in May.

    • U.S. light vehicle production totaled 849,147 units, up 8.9% from April and up 21.9% from May 2021.

    • U.S. production has now increased in four of the last five months.

    • On per/day rate, May had the second highest rate (27,392 units/day), behind March, in the last fifteen months.
    • Year-to-date light vehicle production is now up 3.6% compared with the same timeframe last year.

 

Daimler Truck’s CEO said this week that the world’s largest truck maker is still facing enormous supply chain pressure.

    • Inflationary pressure is also weighing heavily on production, as energy and raw materials are significantly higher.

 

Sales of existing homes continued to slide in May and are now down in four consecutive months and for the fifth time in the last six months.

    • U.S. existing home sales came in at a 5.410 million-unit rate, down 3.4% from April and down 8.6% from May 2021.

    • This was the ninth consecutive month in which sales declined on a year-over-year basis.
    • This was the lowest monthly sales rate since June 2020.
    • Inventory of unsold existing homes increased to 1.160 million units, up from April and at their highest, month-end, level since October.
    • The current inventory level, combined with the May sales rate, equates to 2.6 months.
    • The median sales price continued to climb in May, hitting a new record high.
    • The median sales price was $407,600, up from $395,500 in April.

 

ECONOMIC

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told Congress this week that the central bank is “strongly committed” to bringing down inflation and can do so with its monetary policy tools.

    • That means higher interest rates until “compelling evidence” emerges that inflation is coming down.

    • This comes after the 75 basis point increase last week.

 

 

 

 

 

This material, information and analyses (the “Content”) may include certain statements, estimates and projections prepared with respect to, among other things, historical data and anticipated performance.  Content may reflect various assumptions by Majestic Steel USA, Inc. concerning anticipated results that are inherently subject to significant economic, competitive and other uncertainties and contingencies and have been included for illustrative purposes.  Content is provided AS-IS.