Market Update | March 26, 2025

 

NEW ORDERS FOR MANUFACTURED DURABLE GOODS INCREASED AGAIN IN FEBRUARY

Now up for the second consecutive month, durable good new orders increased 0.9% in February to a $289.3 billion rate and follows a 3.3% increase in January. Excluding transportation, new orders were up 0.7% compared to January. New orders for both primary metals and fabricated metal products increased in February, climbing 1.2% and 0.9%, respectively. ​Nondefense capital goods (ex. aircraft) new orders slipped however, sliding 0.3% after seeing a 0.9% increase in January.

 

PRICE

The recent upward momentum for domestic sheet pricing slowed this week as the indexes caught up with the current market.

  • While CRC and HDG pricing continued to push higher, HRC pricing was slipped again this week.
  • The market has taken a breather as they continue to assess the current tariffs and duties and the pending impact of the AD CO-RE rulings next week.

 

Input Costs

Zinc pricing was up this week, now up for the third consecutive week.

  • Pricing came in at $1.35/lb this week, hitting a fresh YTD high.
  • The ILZSG report showed January zinc mine production gained 4% y/y while zinc production fell 2% y/y.
    • The stable demand for zinc resulted in an apparent deficit of ~120k tons/day for January.

 

Spot iron ore pricing increased this week but remains in the very tight range we have seen for the past five weeks.

  • The current price, $109/mt, is up from $105/mt last week.

 

Coking coal pricing was virtually flat this week, inching higher to $169/mt from $168/mt last week.

  • Prices are down 3.3% from last week and down 11.4% from this time last month.
  • Current coking coal pricing is at its lowest level since early on in the pandemic.

 

SUPPLY

U.S. raw steel production slipped again last week after a sharp increase two weeks ago.

  • U.S. steelmakers produced 1.654 million tons at a 74.3% utilization rate; down from 1.667 million tons previously.
    • Production is now down over 1.0% over the past two weeks.
  • Production was down 0.8% from last week but was down 2.9% from the same week last year.
  • YTD production is down 1.4% from the same timeframe last year.

 

Hyundai Steel formally announced plans to invest $5.8 billion (as part of a larger >$20 billion investment) in a new 2.7 million ton/year EAF mill in Louisiana.

  • This new mill will specialize in automobile steel sheets and will supply Hyundai Motor Co, Kia, and other U.S. automakers.
  • The construction is expected to begin in Q3 2026 with projected commissioning in 2H 2029.

 

Cleveland Cliffs announced plans to idle the steelmaking operations at its Dearborn Works (MI) due to weak automotive demand.

  • The mill’s finishing facilities, including the pickling line tandem cold mill and continuous galvanizing line, will continue to operate.
    • By the time the idling begins at Dearborn (July), Cliffs expects to have the C6 blast furnace at its Cleveland Works back in operation.
  • The Dearborn furnace is rated for 2.2 million tons/year and the Cleveland furnace is rated for 1.5 million tons/year, so this is a net reduction of supply.

 

DEMAND

After a slow start to the year, new home sales rebounded in February.

  • February new home sales came in at a 676,000 unit rate, up 1.8% from January and up 5.1% from
    February 2024.

    • This was the fourth consecutive month in which sales increased on a year-over-year basis.
  • ​The inventory of unsold new homes at the end of February slipped slightly​ to 494,000 units, down from 496,000 units in January.
    • The current inventory, when combined with February’s sales pace, equates to 8.3 months of supply.
    • This is the lowest month of supply since September.
  • The median sales price slipped to $414,500, down on a year-over-year basis for the fourth straight month and for the seventeenth time in the last eighteen months. ​

 

New orders for manufactured durable goods increased again in February and is now up for the second consecutive month.

  • Durable good new orders increased 0.9% in February to a $289.3 billion rate and follows a 3.3% increase in January.
    • Excluding transportation, new orders were up 0.7% compared to January.
  • New orders for both primary metals and fabricated metal products increased in February, climbing 1.2% and 0.9%, respectively.
  • ​Nondefense capital goods (ex. aircraft) new orders slipped however, sliding 0.3% after seeing a 0.9% increase in January.
  • Inventories of durable goods increased slightly in February and are now up for the fourth consecutive month.
    • Total inventories increased $0.4 billion to a $533.2 billion rate.

 

 

ECONOMIC

Confidence among U.S. consumers fell again in March, sliding to 92.9 from 100.1 previously.

  • This was the fourth consecutive month in which confidence declined.
  • ​The Present Situation Index declined to 134.5, down by over 3.5 points from February.
  • The Expectations Index, based on a short-term outlook, dropped to 65.2 in March from 74.8 in February.
    • This was the lowest reading in 12 years and well below the key threshold of 80 that typically signals a recession is ahead.
  • On a six-month average basis, purchasing plans for both homes and cars declined but intentions to buy big-ticket items (appliances/electronics) ticked up, however.

 

 

This material, information and analyses (the “Content”) may include certain statements, estimates and projections prepared with respect to, among other things, historical data and anticipated performance.  Content may reflect various assumptions by Majestic Steel USA, Inc. concerning anticipated results that are inherently subject to significant economic, competitive and other uncertainties and contingencies and have been included for illustrative purposes. Content is provided AS-IS.