Market Update | November 6, 2024

 

U.S. LIGHT VEHICLE SALES REBOUNDED IN OCTOBER

After slowing in September, U.S. light vehicle sales rebounded in October. Sales increased to 1.325 million units, up 13.3% from September and up 10.4% from last October. This was the largest year-over-year increase since December. Year-to-date light vehicle sales are now up 1.6% compared to the same timeframe last year. Much like in September, robust new-vehicle inventory and heightened incentives are key factors helping maintain steady sales volume. Throughout 2024, incentives for new-vehicle sales have been steadily increasing, recently reaching the highest level since early 2021.

 

PRICE

Domestic flat rolled pricing slipped this week as the up-and-down, week-toweek movement over the past three months continues to show the uncertainty around future directional movement for pricing.

 

Input Costs

Zinc pricing slipped slightly this week, slipping for the second consecutive week.

  • Zinc pricing slipped to $1.41 /lb this week, down slightly from the 18-month high seen last week.

 

Spot iron ore pricing held steady this week, holding at $110/mt.

 

Coking coal pricing declined this week, sliding to $204/mt from $209/mt last week.

  • Prices are down 3.8% from last week and are now down 1.8% from this time last month.

 

SUPPLY

U.S. raw steel production dropped last week after climbing the previous three weeks.

  • U.S. steelmakers produced 1.629 million tons at a 73.3% utilization rate, down from 1.660 million tons last week.
    • This was the lowest weekly output in nearly a month.
    • Production was up 1.9% from the prior week and down 2.5% from the same week last year.
  • YTD production is down 2.1% from the same timeframe last year.

 

DEMAND

After slowing in September, U.S. light vehicle sales rebounded in October.

  • U.S. light vehicle sales increased to 1.325 million units, up 13.3% from September and up 10.4% from last October.
    • This was the largest year-over-year increase since December.
  • Year-to-date light vehicle sales are now up 1.6% compared to the same timeframe last year.
  • Much like in September, robust new-vehicle inventory and heightened incentives are key factors helping maintain steady sales volume.
    • Throughout 2024, incentives for new-vehicle sales have been steadily increasing, recently reaching the highest level since early 2021.

 

The inventory of light vehicles on dealers’ lots increased in October, now up for the third consecutive month.

  • US light vehicle inventory totaled 2.941 million units, up 4.3% from September and up a sharp 36.2% from the 2.159 million units in October 2023.
    • This was the highest month end inventory level since April 2020.
  • Inventory increased for both domestically and import vehicles, with domestic car inventory seeing the largest month-over-month increase (10.9%).
  • The current inventory, when combined with October’s sales pace, equates to 60 days of supply.
    • This is up from 55 days in September, but still below the historically ideal level of 65 days.

 

This material, information and analyses (the “Content”) may include certain statements, estimates and projections prepared with respect to, among other things, historical data and anticipated performance.  Content may reflect various assumptions by Majestic Steel USA, Inc. concerning anticipated results that are inherently subject to significant economic, competitive and other uncertainties and contingencies and have been included for illustrative purposes. Content is provided AS-IS.