Market Update | October 11, 2023

 

PRIME SCRAP PRICE FLAT DESPITE EXPECTED DECLINE

After initially expecting a $20-$30/gt decline in October, stronger mill buys and a potential supply disruption from the auto strike helped keep prime scrap flat. Key regions have already settled October scrap flat and the unsettled regions are expected to follow suit within the next day or two.

 

Input Costs

After a holding steady last week, zinc pricing slipped this week as buying activity slowed during the week-long Chinese holiday.

  • Zinc pricing held at $1.11/lb this week and has remained in a relatively tight range for the past month.
    • The average over the past 30 days is $1.13/lb.

 

After initially expecting a $20-$30/gt decline in October, stronger mill buys and a potential supply disruption from the auto strike helped keep prime scrap flat.

  • Key regions have already settled October scrap flat and the unsettled regions are expected to follow suit within the next day or two.

 

Met coal pricing continued to push higher this week, climbing to $361/mt on the increased demand and tight supply.

  • This is up 8.4% from last week and is up 31% from this time last month.

 

Supply

US raw steel production slipped again this week, now down for the second straight week.

  • U.S. steelmakers produced 1.698 million tons at an 74.7% utilization rate.
    • This is the first weekly output below 1,700 million tons since mid-April.
  • The current YTD utilization rate is at 75.9%, down 1.2% compared to the same time last year.

 

Domestic coated lead times continued to push out this week, climbing to 8.79 weeks on average.

  • The two-week average, 8.69 weeks, is the most extended lead times since March.

 

DEMAND

The Dodge Momentum Index, a leading indicator for non-residential construction, saw a slight increase in September.

  • The September DMI came in at 182.5, up from the upwardly revised reading in August.
    • Despite the overall index pushing higher, both the institutional and commercial components slipped from August, sliding 1% and 9% respectively.
  • Solid demand for data centers, life science labs, and hospitals supported the uptick in nonresidential planning activity last month.

 

 

 

This material, information and analyses (the “Content”) may include certain statements, estimates and projections prepared with respect to, among other things, historical data and anticipated performance.  Content may reflect various assumptions by Majestic Steel USA, Inc. concerning anticipated results that are inherently subject to significant economic, competitive and other uncertainties and contingencies and have been included for illustrative purposes.  Content is provided AS-IS.