Market Update | October 30, 2024

 

CONFIDENCE AMONG U.S. CONSUMERS INCREASED IN OCTOBER

After sliding in September, confidence among U.S. consumers increased in October. The October Consumer Confidence Index came in at 108.7, up from 99.2 in September and the strongest monthly gain since March 2021. The Present Situation Index increased sharply, climbing over 14 points to 138.0. The Expectations Index, based on short-term outlook, increased to 89.1. ​​On a six-month average basis, purchasing plans for cars and houses continued to increase, while plans for durable goods purchases also increased.

 

PRICE

Domestic flat rolled product pricing was mixed throughout the products this week as hot rolled pricing dropped sharply, cold rolled was down slightly, and hot-dipped galvanized saw a solid increase.

 

Input Costs

Zinc pricing slipped slightly this week, slipping after two consecutive increases.

  • Zinc pricing slipped to $1.42 /lb this week, down slightly from the 18-month high seen
    last week.

 

Spot iron ore pricing rebounded this week, climbing to $110/mt, up from $106/mt previously.

 

Coking coal pricing declined this week, sliding to $204/mt from $209/mt last week.

  • Prices are down 3.8% from last week and are now down 1.8% from this time last month.

 

SUPPLY

U.S. raw steel production increased again last week, now up for the third straight week.

  • U.S. steelmakers produced 1.660 million tons at a 74.7% utilization rate, up slightly from last week.
    • This was the highest weekly output in over a month.
    • Production was up 1.8% from the prior week and down 2.8% from the same week last year.
  • YTD production is down 1.2% from the same timeframe last year.

 

Preliminary carbon steel imports slipped in September, sliding to the lowest monthly total since December.

  • Preliminary carbon steel imports totaled 1.637 million tons, down 10.7% from August and down 4.8% September 2023.
  • Carbon flat rolled imports were down as well, sliding to the lowest level since February.
    • September per/day carbon flat rolled imports came in at a 19,056 ton/day rate, down 1.4% from August.
  • ​Month-over-month declines in both hot rolled and coated imports overcame a slight increase in cold rolled imports.
    • ​Hot-dipped galvanized imports increased to a 7,606 tons/day rate, the highest daily rate since May.
  • ​YTD flat rolled imports are now up 28.7% compared to the same timeframe last year.​

 

ECONOMIC

Confidence among U.S. consumers increased in October after sliding in September.

  • The October Consumer Confidence Index came in at 108.7, up from 99.2 in September and the strongest monthly gain since March 2021.
  • The Present Situation Index increased sharply, climbing over 14 points to 138.0
  • The Expectations Index, based on short-term outlook, increased to 89.1.
    • The current reading remains well above the threshold of 80 that signals a recession coming.
  • ​​On a six-month average basis, purchasing plans for cars and houses continued to increase, while plans for durable goods purchases also increased.
    • Buying plans for big-ticket appliances were mixed, while plans for electronics slipped.

 

The initial look at Q3 showed that the U.S. economy grew at a 2.8% annual rate.

  • This is down slightly from the final reading of 3.0% annual growth in Q2 2024.
  • ​The increases in GDP in Q3 reflected positive increases in consumer spending, exports, and federal government spending.
    • The increase in spending came from both goods and services, with the largest contributor to goods spending was motor vehicles.
    • The increase in exports came from goods (led by capital goods), while the increase in government spending came from defense.
  • ​​Compared to Q2, the slowdown in growth showed a downturn in inventory investment and a decline in residential investment.​

 

This material, information and analyses (the “Content”) may include certain statements, estimates and projections prepared with respect to, among other things, historical data and anticipated performance.  Content may reflect various assumptions by Majestic Steel USA, Inc. concerning anticipated results that are inherently subject to significant economic, competitive and other uncertainties and contingencies and have been included for illustrative purposes. Content is provided AS-IS.