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Core Report | August 30, 2024
Confidence among U.S. consumers increased again in August, now up for the second consecutive month. The Consumer Confidence Index came in at 103.3, up from 101.9 in July.
Confidence among U.S. consumers increased again in August, now up for the second consecutive month. The Consumer Confidence Index came in at 103.3, up from 101.9 in July.
New orders climbed 9.9% to a $289.6 billion rate. The sharp jump in July follows a nearly similar 6.9% decline in June. Excluding the volatile transportation segment, new orders slipped 0.2% from June. While primary metal new orders declined 0.9%, new orders for fabricated metal products increased 0.2% from June. Unfilled orders for durable goods increased 0.2% in July and are now up in forty-seven of the last forty-eight months.
After sliding the previous four months, sales of existing homes picked up in July. July existing home sales came in at a 3.950 million unit rate, up 1.3% from June but were still 2.5% below year-ago levels.
July light vehicle production totaled 685,980 units, down 18.5% from June and down 4.8% from July 2023. This is the third consecutive month in which light vehicle production declined on a year-over-year basis. This was the lowest monthly production total since July 2022. Despite the recent declines, YTD production remains 2.9% above the level from the same timeframe last year. Looking on a year-over-year basis, to smooth seasonality, both car and light truck production declined, sliding 8.0% and 4.2%, respectively.
Despite all the weaker economic data of late, one thing remains consistent and that is that the U.S. consumer continues to spend. The July retail sales came in at a $709.7 billion rate, up 1.0% from June and up 2.7% from July 2023.
The July Consumer Price Index showed prices for all goods increased 0.12% from June and were up 2.89% from July 2023. The index for shelter increased 0.4% in July, accounting for nearly 90% of the monthly increase. The CORE-CPI, which eliminates food and energy, saw prices increase 3.17% over the past year, the lowest annual increase since April 2021. Besides shelter, other notable increases over the last year include motor insurance (+18.6%), medical care (+3.2%), personal care (+3.4%), and recreation (+1.4%).
The Dodge Momentum Index increased sharply in July, climbing to its highest level since December 2022. The July DMI came in at 216.3, up 7.9% from the upwardly revised 200.5 in June. The DMI is up on a year-over-year basis as well, climbing 17% from 190.3 in July 2023. Within the overall index, both the commercial and institutional planning components increased, climbing 6.8% and 11.1%, respectively.
U.S. light vehicle inventory totaled 2.655 million units, down 5.3% from June but still up nearly 50% from last July. Light vehicle inventory has now seen a year-over-year increase for twenty-five consecutive months. Inventory of domestic light vehicles led the decline in July as car and light truck inventory declined 8.1% and 6.9%, respectively. Inventories of imported vehicles increased 2.3% from June and are at their highest level since March 2021.
The U.S. continued to add jobs in June, however it was the lowest monthly addition in three months. The U.S. added 114,000 jobs, on an adjusted basis, in July, down from the 179,000 jobs added in June. The private sector added 97,000 jobs in July, its lowest monthly total since November.
After sliding for fourteen consecutive weeks, HDG pricing increased this week. The increase from both HDG as well as HRC, helps to signal a bottoming of the recent downward pricing movement.